When Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on March 4, 2026, Brent crude crossed USD 100/barrel for the first time in four years and gold surged above USD 5,400/oz. The RICX portfolio, exposed to gold, forex and crypto, generated +10.33% in March and +20.31% in April — the best consecutive performance since trading inception. This case study shows how and why.
The context: the largest energy shock since 1973
On March 4, 2026, Iranian forces declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed". This was not an isolated announcement: the trigger sat on top of a 12-day air conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran during 2025, the collapse of the Geneva nuclear negotiations and months of escalating tension in the Persian Gulf. 20% of global oil transits that maritime passage; when it shuts, the world energy market loses a vital organ.
Markets reacted immediately:
- Brent crude: crossed USD 100/barrel on March 8 (first time in four years) and peaked at USD 126/barrel
- Spot gold: surged above USD 5,400/oz, all-time high
- Mar 2026: the largest monthly increase in the history of oil prices
- Energy disruption: the largest since the 1973 oil crisis, per the IEA
Traditionally this kind of event punishes long-only equity portfolios and «balanced» 60/40 allocations, because it combines cost-push inflation with recessionary fear. What's interesting about RICX is that its allocation is concentrated precisely where money seeks refuge: gold (XAU/USD), major forex pairs and selective crypto exposure.
Timeline: how RICX read each phase of the conflict
To understand the robot's performance, look month-by-month at the seven months before and after the event:
| Month | Monthly return | Geopolitical context |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | −1.92% | Pre-crisis noise: Iran-Israel tensions without clear direction |
| Nov 2025 | −7.13% | Drawdown during Geneva nuclear negotiations |
| Dec 2025 | +22.50% | Post 12-day air conflict: gold and USD start rising |
| Jan 2026 | +19.53% | Continued flight to safe-haven assets |
| Feb 2026 | +0.18% | Consolidation — the calm before the Strait closure |
| Mar 2026 | +10.33% | Hormuz closure · Brent breaks $100 · gold accelerates |
| Apr 2026 | +20.31% | Full crisis · gold to $5,400 · crypto absorbs flows |
The most relevant point isn't the isolated peak: it's the behavior pattern. When uncertainty is purely psychological (Oct–Nov), the robot keeps reduced positions and absorbs small losses. When uncertainty becomes measurable directional flow (Dec onward), the system progressively scales exposure. And when the trigger fires — Hormuz closure — exposure is already built and the robot captures the move from the start.
Why a robot thrives where the human investor freezes
The Strait of Hormuz closure is exactly the kind of event that exposes the weaknesses of discretionary trading. The human investor faces three traps simultaneously:
- Recency bias: news dominates attention and clouds decision-making. Do I buy gold at the high or wait for a correction?
- Confirmation bias: every new headline is interpreted in favor of the existing position, ignoring technical counter-evidence.
- Loss aversion: exiting the winning trade "so I don't give back gains" before the move completes.
RICX operates through pre-defined pending orders with explicit stop-loss and take-profit and a maximum exposure limit of 2.5% of balance per trade. These rules, coded before the event, allowed the robot to:
- Enter gold during the first post-12-day-conflict consolidation (December 2025)
- Hold the position through the February correction
- Add directional exposure when the Strait closure confirmed the macro thesis
- Apply trailing profit in April to capture the move's extension without closing prematurely
No disciplined human could replicate this without emotional drift over a six-month window. That's the value proposition of automated copy trading: turning a coherent macro thesis into mechanical execution.
November 2025 drawdown: the other side of the system
It would be dishonest to tell the story only through the winning months. In November 2025 the robot had a monthly return of −7.13% — its worst month on record. What happened?
During the Geneva nuclear negotiations the market was pricing in a deal that would reduce the geopolitical risk premium. Gold entered a disorderly technical correction and forex pairs lost directionality. The robot held positions that were within its expected technical window, but volatility exceeded backtest projections.
Three important points:
- The portfolio's total drawdown (−18.4% peak-to-trough at some point) is within the range simulated in the 10-year + Monte Carlo backtest
- Risk management (max 2.5% exposure per trade) prevented the drawdown from becoming a collapse
- The system did not abandon the macro thesis during the worst month — which allowed it to capture the December rebound
A robot that wins in April 2026 has to be a robot that could lose in November 2025. That's the condition of statistical credibility.
Lessons for the investor
This episode leaves three actionable takeaways, regardless of whether you decide to trade with RICX or not:
1. Traditional diversification doesn't protect against energy shocks. A 60/40 stocks-bonds portfolio in March–April 2026 lost real value (stocks down on recession fear, bonds down on inflation expectations). Gold and certain forex pairs do absorb this type of event.
2. Human timing is structurally worse than pre-coded rules. Not because the investor is irrational, but because processing signals under stress with one's own money is cognitively expensive. Mechanical rules neutralize that cost.
3. Public verification is what separates strategy from narrative. RICX's month-by-month track record is on myfxbook, trade by trade, since October 2025. No result shown here is retroactive or cherry-picked: these are real trades, in a real account, with real money.
Next steps
If you want to know how the strategy positions itself for the rest of 2026 — de-escalation scenarios, conflict-extension scenarios, and how the robot adjusts exposure — the next monthly report will be published at /en/resultados/ when May closes.
If you prefer to replicate the strategy in your own account, the step-by-step tutorial explains how to open an Axi account, complete KYC verification and connect to copy trading in under 30 minutes. Minimum deposit USD 1,500. 10% performance fee on actual gains (if you don't earn, you don't pay).